The target, and where it stands
Beat SPY buy-and-hold on deployed capital after cost, within the risk budget, over a rolling 60-trading-day window. The record holds 27 trading days, so the window is not established by these dates alone; allocation and aligned equity/control history are unavailable.
- agent return on deployed capital
- UNKNOWN
- SPY, same window
- UNKNOWN
- after cost
- 58.43
- realized + unrealized
- +605.50 / +57.41
+604.48 PnL; allocated capital UNKNOWN
aligned agent capital and rolling window unavailable
assumed 0.05% round trip
from the FIFO lot ledger
Per strategy, as a diagnostic
| strategy | return | SPY, same window | excess |
|---|---|---|---|
| trend-follow-20261003-001 | +0.27% | +0.26% | +0.01 |
| trend-follow-spy-003 | +0.75% | +0.74% | +0.01 |
| fixed-size-buy-bil-001 | +0.01% | +0.04% | -0.03 |
| fixed-size-buy-spy-001 | +0.54% | +0.71% | -0.17 |
| fixed-size-probe-0001 | -0.15% | +0.50% | -0.65 |
| trend-follow-tlt-buy-001 | +0.27% | +1.03% | -0.75 |
Strategy returns use historical peak exposure as a diagnostic denominator. They do not establish agent allocation, a continuous equity curve, or project profitability.
The signal ledger
| verdict | rows |
|---|---|
| CONFOUNDED | 2 |
| EXPLORATORY | 8 |
| NOT_SIGNIFICANT | 151 |
| SURVIVES | 6 |
| UNDERPOWERED | 6 |
129 distinct hypotheses, 173 historical recorded verdicts. These are ledger counts, not certification under the current research contract or evidence of validated alpha.
Risk configuration used for this measurement
| limit | value |
|---|---|
| max position value | 25,000.00 |
| max total exposure | 90,000.00 |
| max daily loss | 500.00 |
| max trades per day | 100.00 |
These values come from the configuration used to collect this measurement. Historical risk configuration and compliance are not established by these values.